[TCRA] solar cycle

Mike Metzdorf mmetzdorf at cloeren.com
Mon Apr 30 11:25:11 CDT 2007


==>SOLAR UPDATE

Solar flash Tad "I Live for the Sun" Cook, K7RA, Seattle, Washington,
reports: Sunspots have reappeared over the past few days after six days of
nothing. So far in April we've seen 18 days with zero spots, but a large
sunspot, Number 953, now is rolling into view. A solar wind stream also is
expected to hit Earth, causing a geomagnetic upset on Saturday, April 28. 

The Australian Space Forecast Centre predicts quiet-to-unsettled conditions
April 27, active-to-minor storm conditions April 28, and active conditions
April 29. The US Air Force predicts the planetary A index from April 27
through May 1 at 5, 25, 15, 10 and 8. Similar predictions from Geophysical
Institute Prague give us quiet conditions April 27, active April 28,
unsettled to active April 29, unsettled April 30, quiet to unsettled May 1,
and back to quiet May 2-3.

There's been a lot of news this week regarding the solar minimum and
predicted solar maximum. On April 25, a Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel
consisting of members from NOAA, NASA and other agencies looked at all
available predictions, attempted to reach consensus and released a statement
. It looks like
the minimum between cycles 23 and 24 may not occur for another year, until
March 2008, a year later than recently reported. The accuracy is expected to
be plus or minus six months.






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